PerryScope
By Perry Diaz
“String of Pearls”
Last April, Russia and China had joint naval exercises in the Yellow Sea. It was too close for comfort to Japan and South Korea. It didn’t take too long for the U.S., Japan, and South Korea to react. A few days ago, last June 21-22, the USS George Washington carrier strike group conducted a trilateral event with warships from Japan and South Korea in the East China Sea.
It seems that the trilateral naval exercise was a reminder to Russia and China that the U.S. and her Asian allies were prepared to meet a new Russo-Sino alliance. Just two months earlier, Russia and China held weeklong war games in the Yellow Sea involving more than 20 Russian and Chinese warships. The Russian warships were based in Vladivostok.
“Rising World”
It is interesting to note that last May, Sergei Karaganov, an academic from Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, recommended that Russia move her “economic capital” to Vladivostok — 4,000 miles to the Far East — while keeping the political, defense, and diplomatic establishment in Moscow. He said that the move would make Russia a part of the “rising world.” However, in my opinion, the move wouldn’t just give economic advantage to Russia but also provide her with a strategic military presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Vladivostok’s close proximity to China and North Korea would also give Russia an opportunity to create a new “axis of power” with China and North Korea.
When Philippine President Benigno Aquino met with U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House last June 8, they discussed security and economic issues in the region including expanding intelligence-sharing and cooperation on maritime security. During their press conference, Obama said that the security and military cooperation with the Philippines “is a reminder to everybody that the United States considers itself, and is, a Pacific power.”
It makes one wonder if the recent military activities in the region are leading to a new Cold War? If so, the Philippines’ strategic location that’s sandwiched between the vast Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea could put her near the epicenter should a new Cold War erupt. And with all the realignment and rearmament that’s going on among the big powers and their respective allies, the new Cold War could be as deadly as – if not deadlier than — the old Cold War.
Mutual Defense Treaty
The question is: Is the Philippines ready for it? The answer is a big “NO.” With two warships – a frigate and a cutter — and no warplanes, the Philippines would be helpless in the event China invades her. And there is no guarantee that the United States would automatically come to her aid should the Philippines invoke their Mutual Defense Treaty. However, with the recent standoff between China and the Philippines at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines needs to open her doors again to American military forces if she expects the U.S. to come to her defense.
In my article, “Are we losing the Karburo War?” (June 21, 2012), I wrote: “In spite of the departure of U.S. military forces, the 1952 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) remained in force. But many wondered, ‘How could the U.S. come to the defense of the Philippines without any permanent military bases to operate from?’
“In1998, then President Fidel V. Ramos successfully negotiated the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the U.S. The VFA provides for future military cooperation between the two allies including joint military exercises. But critics said that the VFA would be used to get around the 1987 Constitution’s prohibition of foreign military bases on Philippine soil.”
USS George Washington
New strategy
On June 2, 2012, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta spoke before the annual Shangri-La Dialogue conference in Singapore. He announced that the U.S. is moving 60% of her naval forces to the Asia-Pacific region by 2020 as part of a new strategy to increase U.S. presence in Asia-Pacific. “We are stressing our effort to try to develop partnerships with countries in this region, to develop their capabilities so that they can better defend and secure themselves,” Panetta said. Under the new strategy, the U.S. military aims to be smaller, more flexible and agile. He also said that rotational deployments are preferred to permanent bases.
Last June 11, Admiral Cecil Haney, Commander of the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Fleet, announced that the U.S. Navy would be deploying its most advanced warships, submarines, and fighter jets in the Asia-Pacific, apparently to counterbalance China’s modernization of her naval forces at “breakneck speed.”
“String of Pearls”
Indeed, China is in a frenzy to increase her naval capability. She had acquired and retrofitted a Russian aircraft carrier, which is now undergoing several sea trials. She is also building two brand-new super aircraft carriers to be deployed to in the “String of Pearls,” which refers to China’s sea lines of communications that runs through the “choke points” — Strait of Mandab, Strait of Malacca, Strait of Hormuz, and Strait of Lombok — all the way to Port Sudan in the Red Sea.
With the accelerated modernization of China’s naval forces, it is expected that China would become a naval power in the Asia-Pacific region by 2020. But U.S. is also building more warships including the super aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, which is under construction, and a fleet of stealth destroyers. With 11 aircraft carriers in the U.S. Navy, China is not yet in a position to challenge the U.S. militarily but would be within a decade.
Wake-up call
Recently, Chinese Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, director of Chinese Navy’s Information Expert Committee, said that Chinese troops should go after Philippine ships and fishermen who go near the Scarborough Shoal. And that’s precisely what happened when it was reported in the news last June 25 that “a Chinese vessel last week rammed a Philippine fishing boat north of the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), killing a Filipino fisherman and leaving four others missing.” Was it accidental?
Zhuo’s provocative remark raises the question: If Chinese troops were deployed in the Scarborough Shoal and attacked Filipino fishing boats, how would the Philippine government react? And by what means could the Philippines stand up to China? Perhaps it’s about time that the Philippines welcomes back the deployment of American forces within the framework of the VFA. That may be the only option left; otherwise, the Philippine government might as well kiss the Scarborough Shoal and the Spratly islands good-bye.
It’s time indeed for the return of the American admirals to Subic Bay.
Perry,
I can honestly say that this is one of the best perspectives you have written. Another wake-up call to those self-proclaimed Filipino nationalist lawmakers reponsible for closing the U.S. air and naval bases in the Philippines. I’m wondering if those knuckleheads are even regretful of the colossal blunder they have committed and putting their own country in harm’s way.
Those idiots should comprise as members of the circular firing squad.
Don
Thanks for your feedback, Don. I think P-Noy is convinced the need for U.S. presence within the framework of VFA. It fits the U.S.’s “new strategy” of mobility and quick deployment. I’ve been following the U.s. military activities and it’s mid-boggling at how the U.S. is moving to contain a rising China. The U.S. has all the choke points within easy reach of American naval forces. The use of drones to monitor Chinese activities is amazing. What’s next is the deployment of stealth destroyers near those choke points like the Straitr of Malacca and Strait of Hormuz.
Now, P-Noy’s problem is how to put the psuedo-nationalists in check. His mom was unable to prevent the Senate from evicting the U.S. bases. I hope P-Noy would have a better success in containing the Left in our own country.
Perry
Who reported that Chinese vessel rammed PH fishing boat? Pls follow through if this really happened.
Hi Frank,
Philippine Daily Inquirer made the “breaking news” when I was finalizing this article. The situation may have changed since then.
Perry
PINAS MUST OPEN THE COUNTRY FOR AMERICA TO RENT SUBIC BAY AND CLARK AFB AGAIN FOR 5 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR. THIS ACTION WILL COUNTER ACT THE RISING POWER OF CHINA.
AT THE SAME TIME, PINAS MUST MODERNIZE ITS NAVAL FORCES AND AIR FORCE. THIS IS A HARD LESSON NOT TO BE CAUGHT WITH HER PANTS DOWN WHEN FOREIGN INVADERS SHOW THEIR HEADS. PENOYS MUST INVOKE EXECUTIVE ORDERS IN ORDR TO MODERNIZE PINAS MILITARY.
Alberto, for five billion dollars the US can probably just buy a couple of islands somewhere in the Pacific. I think when the US Forces were in our country, the US were leasing those two location for ninety million dollars a year. You want to charge the US five billion dollars and expect them to protect you at the same time. If I were negotiating these deal, I would tell you to screw yourself and find yourself another sucker.
Hey Perry,
I agree! Bring the US Navy back to PI. At siguradong everyday fiesta na naman sa Olongapo City. At maraming Pinay na naman makakakuha ng Kano na magdadala sa kanila sa Tate. Here in the city of Auburn, WA, where I am at, there are many Pinays, who are married to Kanos, who they met when they worked as barmaids in Olongapo and Angeles. I see them all the time in our church na kalagkad nila yung mga asa-asawa nila. Perhaps, thanking God sa swerte nilang nakuha.
So, hey, I am with you, gayem. Let’s support this for the sake of some of our women, ha?
As to who will win in case there would a shooting “war” between Russo-Chinese-North Korea navies and the American-Japanese-South Korea alliance, NO DOUBT in my mind the US Navy, even singlehandedly, can easily clobber the Russian-Chinese-North Korea navies.
So, yes, I definitely agree with you. The INUTIL Philippine Navy, e tumabi na lang ngarud sa isang tabi. Two little bitty hand-me-downs warships na mga walang bala. Dios me naman. How pitiful is the Peenoy, na “da best daw saan man sa mundo.”
Jesse
Hi Jesse,
I didn’t include Australia, Great Britain, and Canada who are keeping a low profile but getting their forces in place behind the U.S.
Perry
JJ, if I remember correctly, a high ranking Chinese military official already acknowledge that there’s no way that they can defeat the US militarily. They may have the US outnumbered in terms of military personnel, but in terms of high tech weapons systems, the US is way ahead of them and I think that’s why this general made that admission. And Jessie, we’re the best alright. Just look at how our country is coming along, Vietnam went through decades of civil war and look at them now. Our country toppled an evil dictator and a crooked president and where did we go? Same shit, nowhere? Sometimes you can’t help but be critical of our country because it happens to be true.
Noah,
It happens to be true, yes, and so sad to accept that it’s so true. Wawa We!
Jesse
I could not agree more, Perry! Our intertwined world can maintain relative peace only if there is a strong United States; I mean the only superpower.The Philippines, with our special relationship with Uncle Sam should wake up to the reality of current geo-political upheaval.
Hi Doc,
The U.S. is stronger than it was since the end of the Vietnam War. The U.S. is always three steps ahead of China and Russia.
Perry
Juan, let’s all hope that the Filipino people will soon come to their senses and let their elected officials know that it’s time for them to get off their high horse and for once use their common sense instead of their silly pride, which is useless anyway. I can assure you that when our backs are finally pushed against the wall, the only country that is willing to take the bullet for us is the United States. There’s not a lot of country who’s willing to tangle with Uncle Sam because they know that he carries a big stick, our country however are filled with elected officials whose only function is to shoot their mouths off and blow nothing but hot air. I guarantee you that when the shit finally hits the fan, these people will be the first one to abandon ship. And where do you think they are all heading? That’s right, the good old USA.
Oh yow so right you are Perry. If only this quality of discussion would be the style with Congress then we know our lawmakers will really be thinking seriously! If the quality of thought and action showed via TV in the Corona impeachment could permeate all Senatorial and congressional deliberations, why, I will certainly begin to admire our officials. But.,.I am afraid that the high notes in the Corona Impeachment will not enjoy continued support vis a vis the “judges” for it is possible that a few of them do have issues similar to what Corona faced but, to date, are still unknown to the public. Excellent article Perry! Keep your heroic writings, fellow Filipino.
Hi Tony,
Thanks for insightful comments. I couldn’t agree more, my friend.
Perry
The Philippines can not have it both ways. When the “Nationalistic” politicians in the Philippines decided to close the bases down, I agreed with that decision because (1) the U.S. was “low Balling” the Philippines on the rent. At the same time the rent was being negotiated, Greece signed one with the U.S. that if I remember correctly was for at least 5 or more times the amount that the U.S. was offering Manila. Nothing new here because if you read Kramer’s book, “In Our Image: U.S. Colony in the Philippines,” the Philippines has always been treated a 2nd class citizen by this country. The politicians in Washington only needed the bases in the P.I. and other the rich crooks in the country, the whole country was very dependent on America. (2) The Nationalistic groups, at least showed a little pride and my hope at the time was for the politicians there will find enough incentives to create a decent economy and not fill their pockets first. I read where Erap said during his campaign for the President,that he will bring back the overseas Pilipinos home, especially the women. But we all knew what happened to him. Good idea but “Malas na naman ang Pinoy.”
The U.S. can probably go to war with China and Russia without any land bases in that area, on a short term war. Once it become a long commitment like the present, they need a land base for resupply and the Philippines become a key player again. For sure, if there is a base there, America will bat for the Philippines. As it is right now, I have doubt that they will help ward off the Chinese should the Philippines all of a sudden decided to fight for their right.
What do you expect from Filipino politicians composed of comedians, actors, entertainers,a boxer,a deranged woman, with a sprinkling of decrepit old men? What do they know about geo-politics?
Guy, the problem really is that they all believed that they are God’s gift to the country. They are all highly educated individuals, supposedly. Well, not all of them, there are a few that should’nt even be in this business, but they are. And then there’s the Filipino people. The fate of our country are actually in their hands, they are supposed to choose the best to represent them in our government, but 99 percent of the time they get side tracked by a bunch of lying, over ambitious individuals who could’nt care less about the people let alone the country. Changing the mindset of the people is not going be an easy task, so it looks like the business of running our government will remain the same with no relief in sight.
Hey Guy,
I LMFAO at your comment. But sadly, so true.
Jesse
What will China and Russia want from us so we could be a target for an invasion?
Maybe our fear has no basis. We have to answer that question first. You recall we were drawn into the second world war because of our relations with the U.S.? Some of our neighboring countries did not taste the second world war. Just some thoughts to ponder. We need to balance our military alliances to what will serve our best interest.
HI Angel,
The answer to your question is: “No, China and Russia don’t want anything from us except our oil and gas in the Spratly island. In regard to Scarborough Shoal, China wants exclusive possession of the lagoon (the size of Quezon City), which is rich in marine life (good for fishing).
Perry
my great-great grandparents,grandparents,parents,father in law,uncles and aunts served,first cousins,up to 3rd and 4th cousins,myself and my daughter and fought side by side with the USA,from spanish american war,WWII,Korean war,vietnam war,desert storm,etc.
It is time for all pseudo nationalist/communist to stop their facade bogus, claim of national pride…they are wrong and had been wrong from the very beginning.
even Japan,Australia,Malaysia,Hongkong,South Korea, New Zealand,Thailand all with a greater and higher standard of living,GNP,military and economic power than the Philippines had been welcoming our only most trusted ally,the USA for more than 60 years….and these bastard nationalist/communist had committed this dilemma and grave mistake of delivering each and every filipinos to these unwarranted bullying and scare tactics of these soul-less china to subjugate everyone in the philippines….even the unborn. because of their pure arrogance and jealousy.
i have a small percentage of chinese blood in me but i will not side with these blood sucking chinese….never.
there would be no abu-sayaf,or al-queda had we not driven the americans out of our country closing two of the most important US military installations outside CONUS.
why can we not do like the japanese do year in year out of providing jobs and infrastructure projects for the japanese economy. these projects which provide jobs to the japanese are the cost sharing agreement they have with the japanese government and the US….it is mutual and cost sharing.
filipinos cannot be too greedy,they have to share the cost of their defense with the US government. and these is what we should have been doing all along.
freedom and democracy is not free. “Even some liberal americans don’t understand this. there is cost to everything in this life. people see how our dedicated american boys shed their blood, life, and family sacrifices for the freedom that we enjoy here in america and our standard of living.
american boys looses their life everyday in the middle east because of our profound belief that our country USA represent these golden values of freedom,fairplay,shared sacrifice/s,being a good citizen,and everything that our constitution stands for…and this is not just a gimmick because we pay forward with our own blood and sacrifices, and that’s why we americans are a different breed.
China do not have to invade the Spratleys and scarborough shoals militarily, they had invaded the entire Philippines economicaly for the last 50 years. If they want to ivade the country militarily, they don’t have to come from main land China, they are already in PI disguised as bussiness men, more than a third of the population in PI are chinese for crying out loud. These were my thoughts.
That’s right, aside from the OFW’s remittances our country would fall flat on it’s face if it was’nt for those Chinese capitalist that owns almost all of the big businesses in our country. Of course, all of these Chinese businessmen also owns most, if not all of our elected officials.
China warns the Philippines not to operate a school for Filipino children living in Pag-asa island in the Spratly archipelago. What’s next? Invasion?
http://globalnation.inquirer.net/41595/china-warns-philippines-vs-1st-school-on-pag-asa
Hi Perry,
Having lived in Norfolk area the last 46 years, thank God for America’s stealth submarines. Full speed ahead for this world’s equalizer!
Doc
Hi Doc,
Wait till you see the stealth destroyer!
Perry
We are really in trouble because we are caught in between two super powers where ambitions they want to keep for themselves. If we are to win ownership of this island, are we in capable of preserving the marine habitat or be included also with other islands in the Philippines being overused by irresponsible businessmen, or maybe we could just be reluctant to a possible rage going to take place if we eagerly push ownership of this, as someone have said, “War is the trade of kings.”
the only way we can save ourselves in case of a shooting war is to reforest and build tunnels as the miners extract minerals. make sure mining policy is in line with making filipinos secure in the future. the way mining is being done exposes more filipinos to danger. so make sure there is a national security component in every mining plan. all mountains must be reforested. a forested mountain was the hiding place of the filipinos during wars. convert some caves to military headquarters. as all headquarters now should be underground. and lastly make advance anti aircraft and anti missile systems. the afp should start this program now or we shall perish like flies in case of a shooting war.
Since the Philippines do NOT have military capabilities to defend herself to China and her aggressive alliance to Russia and North Korea it is more realistic and better for the Philippines to constructively and build strong military alliance with USA,Australia,Japan and South Korea.Absolutely the self-proclaimed nationalistic politicians was wrong and short sighted. It did not affect only our military capabilities but also economically.
Fernando, that’s what happens when the people of the Philippines continue to rely on some of the most worthless politician to be in charge of our country’s fate, and believe me, if these people have one iota of care about the safety of our nation they never would have kicked the US Forces out. Do you have any recollection at all of China daring to venture into our territorial waters when the US Forces were present in our country? I don’t. It is so important for the Filipino people to let their elected officials know who they work for. This is the time for the people to voice their concern about the safety of our country before it’s too late.
Hi Perry,
just wanna say that you are doing a great job on the reports…
Re: Return of the admirals, I am very concerned and alarmed with this. China is getting something that is clearly not theirs, this is the bigest terrorist in the making. It looks like we cant do much. I pray for the safety of everybody.
Thanks again Perry!
Hi Carlos,
China is taking over the South China Sea piece by piece. And there is nothing the Philippine government could do unless it starts building its own navy and air force. The U.S. is staying out of the territorial dispute. The Philippines should amend the Constitution to allsow U.S. forces to be stationed permanently on Philippine soil. Otherwise, the government can’t expect the U.S. to defend the country against Chinese aggression.
Perry
Perry, I’m willing to bet that when the Chinese forces are marching down Roxas Blvd with their military equipment in tow, those 12 Senators who voted to oust the US Forces out of our country will be the one leading the parade. The US, even with their promise of giving us their protection, I’m sure have not forgotten what our country did to them.
Hi Noah,
There is only one way to rectify the shameful action of the left-leaning senators who unceremoniously booted the Americans out of the country in 1991; that is, amend the Constitution to remove the ban on foreign military forces on Philippine soil. P-Noy and Belmonte must heed the call of Enrile for a charter change to pave the way for American forces to come back. If P-Noy and congressional leaders want the protection of the U.S. from Chinese aggression, then they have to pay the price. Like they say, “There is no such thing as free lunch.” The Philippine government has been a “palamunin” for decades, it’s time for us to pay for our “lunch.”
Perry
Hi Perry,
Thanks for the reply. I agree with your point of view. I just wish that the U.S. will support us, and if they do, i hope it will be ASAP. If this will prolong, everybody knows more or less what will happen.
thanks again Perry
God bless and more power!
Right on, Carlos!
Perry