GLOBAL BALITA

by Antonio C. Abaya
from Standard Today
 
In his paper on The 2010 Presidential Elections: Assessments and Analysis, A Year Ahead, political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan presented a traditional and uncontroversial overview of the political scene.
 
Namely, that the contenders will be Joseph Estrada, Noli de Castro, Chiz Escudero, Loren Legarda, Kiko Pangilinan, Mar Roxas, Manny Villar, Jejomar Binay, Bayani Fernando, Gilberto Teodoro, Reynato Puno, Among Ed Panlilio, Eddie Villanueva, and (whom he unaccountably left out) Ping Lacson.
 
That Lakas-Kampi will choose their candidate from among the party members (Teodoro, Fernando), and that consequently the Independent Noli de Castro will seek the nomination elsewhere, possibly from a new party allegedly being formed by businessman Manny Pangilinan.
 
That Villanueva’s Bagong Bangon Pilipinas has no chance. One gets only one crack at the presidency. Villanueva ran for president in 2004 and came out fifth in a field of five. That Nandy Pacheco’s Ang Kapatiran would find it hard to be competitive, no matter whom they decide to field as presidential candidate.
 
That the issues will be the core issues of economic recovery, accountability, graft and corruption, peace in Mindanao, poverty alleviation, foreign policy, the environment.
 
That the qualities being sought by voters in a president are: magaling (good, competent), madaling lapitan (easily approachable)., mapagmalasakit sa mga mahihirap (will work for the benefit of the poor).
 
That the previous top vote getters in a presidential/vice presidential election have been Estrada (10 million) and De Castro (15 m); in senatorial elections: Roxas (19 m), Legarda (18 m). 
 
The 32.4 million voters are expected to vote, out of 45 million registered voters. That in a three-way race, 11.8 m votes or 30 percent are enough to win. In a four-way race, 9.1 m votes or 28 percent; in a five-way race (most likely), 7.8 m votes or 24 percent, would be enough to win. In the 1992 seven-way presidential elections, Fidel Ramos won a plurality of only 23 percent.
 
In 2010, television and radio would be the main field of combat and will account for 50-55 percent of candidates’ expenses: ground level logistics and organizational expenses 30-35%; and cyberspace – internet, texting propaganda – only 15-20 percent.
 
Tony Gat did not hazard a guess on which candidate or candidates would most likely win. But he did say that the supposedly two million solid bloc votes of the Iglesia ni Kristo would be the crucial swing vote, especially if there are five or more candidates.
 
I was one of six reactors to Tony Gat’s paper and I took my usual unconventional stand.
 
I said outright that the most important candidate in the 2010 elections would be Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, who will run for the congressional seat of her district in Pampanga, while she remains the sitting president.
 
I said that GMA will follow the example Vladimir Putin in Russia, as I have predicted in this space as early as September 2007. .At that time, President Putin, serving his second and last term as president, was “prevailed upon” during a party congress of the United Russia Party, to run for a seat in parliament in December 2007 parliamentary elections.
 
(Putin is genuinely popular in Russia because he has brought stability and prosperity to the Russian people, after the chaotic years under Boris Yeltsin.)
 
He ran and, to no one’s surprise, won. When his presidential term was about to end in March 2008, his hand-picked successor, Dmitri Medvedev, ran and, to no one’s surprise, won the presidential elections. When the new president took over in May 2008, he appointed Putin prime minister, again to no one’s surprise.
 
Although Russia has not formally shifted from the present presidential system to a parliamentary system, no one doubts that the real executive power rests in the hands of the prime minister, Putin.
 
So the stage is being set for a Putin Scenario in Manila. The long-delayed merger of the Lakas-CMD (the party of thieves, according to Rep. Teddyboy Locisn) and the Kampi (the party of political prostitutes, according to me) is now a done deal, guaranteeing an overwhelming majority in the Lower House for the Gloria in Excelsis Chorus, when they push for a constituent assembly to amend the Constitution for a shift to parliamentary without the participation of the oppositionist Senate.
 
But there may be no need for ChaCha before the May 2010 ellections, as this would be very controversial and could diminish the chances of the Lakas-Kampi presidential candidate. The ChaCha could very well happen AFTER the May 2010 elections when a triumphant Congresswoman Gloria leads the charge in the new Congress for the shift to parliamentary, thus picking up where President Gloria left off.
 
In addition, a ChaCha maneuver before the May 2010 elections may run into legal and constitutional problems which will need a decision by the Supreme Court. Moral Force advocate Chief Justice Reynato Puno will likely use all his powers of moral suasion to block such a nakedly self-serving power move.
 
Fortunately for the Gloria in Excelsis Chorus, CJ Puno will reach mandatory retirement age in May 2010. He will have to be replaced by President Gloria, no doubt with  someone who will be willing to sing along with the Gloria in Excelsis Chorus. And this will have to be done after the May 2010 elections.
 
And who would President Gloria’s  Medvedev be? It has to be someone who is genuinely popular but who is a political and intellectual lightweight, who would be satisfied with being a ceremonial president, with the perks (and chicks) that go with it, without the headaches and heartaches that go with trying to govern an ungovernable people. Sounds like Noli de Castro, not the vastly disliked Fernando nor the bland and colorless Teodoro.

And just in case some roughnecks will have other ideas, the military has been co-opted to protect, not the interests of the Filipino people, but the interests of President Gloria.
 
AFP Chief-of-Staff Lt. Gen. Alexander Yano, who was scheduled to retire on June 13, 2009, has been made to retire earlier, for reasons not made public. If he has not done so yet, he will soon turn over command of the military to Army chief  Lt. Gen. Victor Ibrado, who is himself scheduled to retire before May 2010, and is expected to be replaced by the new Army commander Lt. Gen. Delfin Bangit. 
 
This deliberately choreographed game of musical chairs seems to be specifically programmed to put Gen. Bangit, former chief of the Presidential Security Group and said to be a favorite of President Gloria, in command of the entire military organization before the May 2010 elections, just in case some misguided liberal democrats have some foolish ideas about the sovereign will of the people and all that.
 
Coincidentally, there were rumors circulating two months ago that Gen Yano and Chief Justice Puno would hold a press conference sometime in mid-March during which Gen Yano would announce the military’s withdrawal of support from President Gloria and the formation of a civilian-military revolutionary transition government to be headed by Chief Justice Puno.
 
I have no idea if these rumors had any basis in fact. But I am assuming that Malacanang did hear these rumors and acted deliberately but quietly by offering Gen. Yano the post of ambassador to Brunei, plus perhaps some financial sweeteners, leaving Puno with a bag full of Moral Force but nothing else.
 
The coming 365 days will show which crystal ball has the clearer picture, Tony Gat’s or Tony Abaya’s . All I can say at this point is that Niccolo Machiavelli could learn a lesson or two, or even more, from President Gloria on how to grab and hold on to power forever, even if she is, according to President Obama, on the “wrong side of history.”

*****
 
Reactions to tonyabaya@gmail.com. Other articles in www.tapatt.com and in acabaya.blogspot.com.