GLOBAL BALITA

PerryScope
by Perry Diaz

The presidential election is not determined by popular vote.  The President and the Vice President are elected by the Electoral College which consists of 538 American citizens. “Hey, that’s a piece of cake,” you might say.  However, the presidential election of the United States is one of the most complicated process in electing the head of state of a nation.
The Primary Election is used to select the presidential and vice presidential nominees. Each state holds it own Primary to determine which candidates of the participating political parties would get the state delegates to their national conventions.  In most states, the popular vote percentage is used to allocate the number of delegates for each candidate.  An exception is California where the winner of each party takes all the delegates.  The Primaries are held at various times, the earliest being in Iowa followed by New Hampshire.
At each of the opposing political parties’ convention, the party delegates select their nominees for president.  Usually, the nominee for president chooses his running mate.

After the nominees have become their party’s official candidates, they or their parties submit the names of the Electors of the Electoral College.  In the General Election, held on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November, the voters vote for the Electors of their choice.  The ballot shows which candidate the Elector is representing.  The number of Electors from each state is equal to the number of US Senators (always 2) and the number of its Congressmen (changes every decade as determined in the Census).

The common strategy of the opposing candidates is to identify what is referred to as the battleground states.  These are the states that could swing either way on Election Day.  The other states are presumed as already carried by the presidential candidates.  Depending on how strong a state is in leaning towards a candidate is a key factor in whether to spend time and money campaigning in that state.  A good example is California.  It has the largest number of Electors — 55 — that represents almost 10 percent of the Electoral College.  Actually, whoever wins in California would get a whopping 20 percent increase over his opponents’ cumulative total.

Your initial reaction would probably be:  “California would be one humungous battleground state.”  With more than 36 million Californians, it’s a presidential candidate’s  dream of winning the state.  Is it then fair to assume that President George W. Bush and John F. Kerry will battle it out in California for the 55 electoral votes?   Not necessarily.

Let’s look at what happened in the past four presidential elections in California.  In 1988, then Vice President George H.W. Bush (the father) won the presidential derby in California.  At that time the Reagan Democrats were still pretty much in the Republican side.  However, in 1992, President George H.W. Bush sensed that the Democrats have overtaken the Republicans in voter registration and that the Reagan Democrats were not as enthused in voting Republican.  Several weeks prior to the election, President George H.W. Bush abandoned California and moved his political operations to the battleground states.  In 1996, Bob Dole, the Republican nominee abandoned California as well.  In 2000, George W. Bush campaigned hard in California.  Although George W. Bush lost in California, he won the presidency in the battleground state of Florida.

This year’s presidential election is so close that it could change direction at any time. According to the latest posting by the Electoral Vote Predictor 2004, the states that are considered as “Strong Bush” states are Texas, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska.   The states that are considered “Strong Kerry” states California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Hawaii, Vermont, Massachusetts,  Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and District of Columbia.  States that are considered as “Weak Bush” states are Colorado, Ohio, North Carolina, and South Carolina. States that are considered as “Weak Kerry” states are Washington, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida.  The “Battleground States” are Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, and Maine. These predictions are based on polls conducted periodically on each state.

If the predictions are accurate, then the 12 battleground states with a total of 99 electoral votes would determine who will be the next president.  It would be likely that California, with its large electoral votes, would be placed in the back burner unless a miracle happens and President Bush would be able to sway California to his side.  It is more likely that his campaign would concentrate on the battleground states.  Of the 12 battleground states, five states — Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Virginia — with a total of 45 electoral votes are slightly leaning to Bush.  The other seven battleground states — Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Maine — with a total of 54 electoral votes are slightly leaning to Kerry.

How will the Filipino-American vote fit into the scheme of things.  The five states with the largest number of Filipino-Americans are California, Hawaii, New Jersey, New York, and Illinois.  These are “Strong Kerry” states.  Based on the 2000 Census, the cumulative total of Filipino-Americans in these states is 1,571,447 of which 50 percent — 785,000 — are presumed to be qualified voters.

The 12 battleground states have a cumulative total of 194,714 Filipino-Americans.   That’s roughly 94,000  Filipino-American qualified voters.  Nevada and Virginia each  have 23,000 Filipino-American qualified voters followed by Arizona with 13,000.  These battleground states are slightly leaning to Bush; therefore, Bush needs the Fil-Am votes in these three states to safeguard his narrow lead.  Conversely, Kerry could sway the Fil-Ams to his side and carry these states.

Seven battleground states are slightly leaning to Kerry.  Wisconsin has 12,000 Filipino-American qualified voters, Oregon has 9,000, Missouri has 7,000 and Minnesota has 6,000.  Kerry needs the Fil-Am votes in these states to safeguard his small lead.  If Bush would be able to sway the Fil-Am voters to his side, he could carry these states.

In 2000, President Bush won by 537 votes in Florida and won the presidency by a margin of only seven electoral votes.  Whoever would get the Fil-Am vote in seven battleground states — Nevada, Virginia, Arizona, Wisconsin,  Oregon, Missouri and Minnesota — with a total of 66 electoral votes  would be in a good position to win the presidency. With 1.2 million Filipino-American qualified voters in the entire United States, less than 100,000 Filipino-Americans could influence the outcome of the presidential election on November 2, 2004.  That’s power .  Let’s use it.